For almost five decades, Britain has failed to deliver homes at the pace of other wealthy nations in Europe, or even at the rate Britain did through the 1960s.
The run up to the 2024 general election has prompted a moment for reflection. This is not a political commentary about which party has or has not made a meaningful contribution to this ever-growing crisis, and I know we’re not alone as a nation, the issue is a global one. It is estimated that around 1.6 billion people around the world lack adequate housing and basic services; and it is envisaged this could rise to 3 billion by 2030. It is estimated that 100 million people worldwide are homeless.
It is a giant problem driven by myriad complex factors. In our very small part of that world, we have watched as the housing debate has rattled on over the last 20 years. Shortly after we launched our operation Kate (now Dame) Barker submitted her report to the then Labour government, to provide an overview of the UK housing supply. The report was a solid piece of work from a well-respected economist who took a focussed view of the problems confronting UK plc. It is fair to say, few of the excellent recommendations she made were adopted.
One of her initial points was that the UK had experienced a long term upward trend of 2.4% in real house prices over the preceding 30 years. And, to reduce this rate of increase to 1.8% (more aligned with the rest of Europe) an additional 70,000 houses may be required in England each year.
In 2017 Philip Hammond, then Chancellor in Theresa May’s Conservative government, announced that to address the growing shortage of housing supply, the country needed to build 300,000 new homes every year.
When I started this article, I (wrongly) assumed that all political attempts to arrest decline had failed, yet the table below would say otherwise.
But maybe the goals set were never sufficiently stretching to begin with! And frankly nobody knows what the actual number is, but we can all agree it will be a very large number and the cost and resource necessary to deliver such a quantity of housing is eye wateringly vast.
None of the political initiatives (globally) appear to have cracked this. The USA estimates their housing shortage to be over 7 million. So, what is the cause, do any of us understand what’s been happening? There are numerous (often unrelated) factors that to a greater or lesser extent by country, are driving this crisis:
Population growth – we’re living longer, in 1900 av. terminal age was 42 and in 2024 it is 84
Global economics – ruinous cost of the financial crash in 2008 and the pandemic in 2020
Land – availability, planning and costs
Poor build quality – reducing the longevity of what has already been built
Sustainability – getting it right today
War – driving migration
Climate change – driving migration
Affordability – average home today costs 9X income versus less than half that in 1960
These are some of the most obvious causes of housing shortage and it is clear to me that these are problems that will never be resolved in the short term. They require radical, global, long-term solutions, so maybe now would be a good time to join forces with others to see what can be achieved working with our global counterparts than ploughing a lonely furrow.
Putting into context today’s UK housing challenge, this chart compares output over the last 20 years (After Build’s lifespan) to the preceding 70 years. A war had recently ended, and Britain had been reduced to rubble in most major cities. Add to this those slum areas that had survived the blitz and our housing stock was neither large enough nor of sufficient quality.
Nonetheless over the 20 years between 1955 and 1975, the nation built 7 million homes, an average of 330,000 a year … and that was achieved because over 40% (2.8 million) were built by the local authority and we affectionately called them council houses. In 2022, the combined local authorities of the UK completed 4,230 new homes … less than 2% of total housing output for that year.
For as long as any government places an obligation on the private developer to build the nation out of its housing crisis, the shortage will surely grow. These are businesses, and they are like all other businesses in their responsibility to make a profit. They don’t have a moral obligation to solve the country’s housing shortage any more than a supermarket does to eradicate hunger, or a bank to address the poverty.
This is in danger of becoming a politically charged article and I started by saying that it wasn’t, so, maybe politics hasn’t helped address the problem at all, rather it has compounded it.
Maybe the solution starts with a non-political body, assembled with a mission to get control of the issue and devise a plan that, irrespective of governmental comings and goings, will move in a positive and progressive direction to improve our lot, year upon year.
Quick fixes will never really help and are, at best ‘vote winners. They are short lived and merely nipping at the ankles of the beast. Whichever country gets this first and implements creative and innovative change will lead the charge. There is a need to find a model that can be applied in most parts of the globe, and the sooner the better. Sadly, the penny does not appear to have dropped yet. Let’s hope that it does in the very near term.
Meanwhile, After Build will continue to provide a first class after care service for as many new homes as developers would like to bring our way.
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